Sunday 20 November 2016

Donald Trump is President Elect - lets get on with it.

Donald Trump defied the worldwide political establishment and beat Hilary Clinton to the most coveted post that of US President.  The sneering classes that is the Liberal Left are having to eat a huge amount of humble pie and whilst thy cry into their peppermint teas the rest of us will need to face the fact that Trump has won.

Globalisation has lead to a highly dysfunctional world where the rich, democratic first world economies have switch production of consumer goods to second/third world economies.  This has caused a massive imbalance in world trade not helped by Asian economies refusing to opening up their markets in services, technology and high value goods and significant state manipulation of the currency most notably by China.

We are now in the most ridiculous state that China owns the majority of the world's debt funded by the aforementioned imbalance of trade and even worse the situation that China is not necessarily seen as a friend.  The situation has been facilitated by weak Governments and global corporations who have shifted production searching for ever higher returns for their shareholders and it's workers in these corporation's home country that have paid the highest price.

Now, lame duck Governments paint these global corporations as the villains of the piece but the reality is that these companies have simply followed their noses for the biggest returns for their shareholders most acting within the law.  The question for me, without an answer, is have they acted morally?

The biggest threat to the world economy comes from Trump's anti-trade rhetoric aimed at blue collar workers in the rust belt states of the USA implying that he will force repatriate jobs back to the US at the expense of the low wage nations of Asia and central America by tearing up trade agreements. The problem here is that consumers both sides of the Atlantic have got used to the low cost throw away consumerism built on cheap poorly made goods the fact is that the majority of consumers are not going to pay thirty to forty percent more fore these goods just because they are made locally.

There will be a price to pay as the affected Asian economies simply close their markets to goods made in the USA which will in eventually lead to job losses and a slowing world economy as trade ware breakout across the world.

Trump does offer carrots by offering to significantly lower corporate taxes for US corporations and giving them a one off incentive to repatriate their huge slush funds housed offshore.  One wonders if you currently pay no tax why would you want to pay any tax even under a Trump Presidency.

Western Governments will need to work with Trump in order to influence his policy direction standing on the sidelines snipping will have no impact.

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